Almanac at the State Fair

Last night on Almanac, the Political Roundtable consisted of Prof. Cynthia Rugeley from UMD, Prof. Larry Jacobs of the Humphrey School of Politics at the U of M and Prof. Kathryn Pearson, also from the U of M. To watch the entire program, follow this link. Predictably, Prof. Jacobs was asked the first question. He immediately said that this would be a high-turnout election. He based that on the competitive primaries on both sides. At least, they were anticipated to be competitive. Prof. Jacobs said that the Minnesota Senate race might be the difference between a Democrat or GOP majority in the Senate. It's more likely to mean the difference a 53-47 GOP majority or a 55-45 GOP majority, in my opinion.

Eric Eskola then asked Prof. Pearson whether the candidate that raises the most money usually wins. Prof. Pearson said that the closest races always attract the most sttention so they usually attract the most money, too. That's GENERALLY true but there are exceptions. A semi-competitive race (3-5 points in the Philadelphia TV market will cost a fortune. A statewide ad buy in Florida costs $1,000,000 per week. Further, in 2010, the top 15 funded campaigns were Demcrats, with 12 of those 15 losing. They were running while defending the ACA, aka the Affordable Care Act, a near-impossible task. That would've required divine intervention.

The top DSA candidates will be well-funded. Most of them will lose in battleground states or purple districts. BTW, I found it odd that they didn't talk about the Schutz-Ellison race. That's a real story:

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