Katie Hobbs' first major mistake

Doug Ducey became a hero amongst conservatives nationwide when he implemented a major expansion of Arizona's school choice program. This year, with Democrat Katie Hobbs as governor, she's trying to turn back the clock by reducing Arizona's school choice program. That's a major mistake. It'll cost more to run Hobb's program than it'd cost Arizona taxpayers if they kept Gov. Ducey's program intact.

The Wall Street Journal wrote "Arizona established education savings accounts, which it styles Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, in 2011. With an ESA, parents can use a portion of their child’s state education funds—about $7,000—to pay for private-school tuition, tutoring, textbooks, online courses, home-school curricula, special-needs therapy and other expenses. Last year’s law abolished eligibility limits and made ESAs available to all K-12 students in the state. Ms. Hobbs’s proposed budget would undo the expansion, leaving only around 1 in 4 students eligible."

The article continues, saying:

In her first State of the State Address, she assailed the Legislature for expanding the program and warned it "will likely bankrupt the state." She claimed the new law is "poised to cost Arizona taxpayers an estimated $1.5 billion over the next 10 years if left unaddressed."

But there’s an obvious problem with her math. Arizona spends more than $12,000 a pupil on its public schools, while the typical universal ESA award amount is only $7,000. Ms. Hobbs counts the cost of the program but ignores the fiscal benefit. An analysis from the nonpartisan Common Sense Institute finds that the ESA program will save taxpayer money.

There's a fight brewing over school choice in Arizona:

Gov. Hobbs is committing political suicide. There's a big group of parents who are utilizing the ESA program. Further, Gov. Hobbs' chances of getting her plan passed are pretty much nonexistent with GOP majorities in both houses of the state legislature. Anyone thinking that GOP legislators will vote en masse to shrink Gov. Ducey's legacy issue is kidding themselves.
The state Education Department reports that traditional public-school enrollment has declined by nearly 31,000 since 2019 and is now more than 70,000 below the 2019 budget projections. The Common Sense Institute calculates that this decline generates more than $500 million in annual statewide savings, more than offsetting the $377 million annual projected cost of the full ESA program.
Next, there's this:
"First of all, Arizonans want school choice," House Speaker Ben Toma said in response to Ms. Hobbs’s speech. "I don’t think giving parents choice is equivalent to anti-public-education."
The GOP majorities are slim but they're in both houses of the state legislature. Finally, there's this:
A Morning Consult tracking poll this month found 67% of Arizonans and 77% of parents with school-aged children support ESAs. Enrollment has surged to 45,000 from 10,000 since the expansion. Even Ms. Hobbs should think twice before alienating these constituents.
This isn't a fight Hobbs can win.

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