One Big Beautiful Bill winners and losers

When the House of Representatives passesd the One Big Beautiful Bill, aka the OBBB, by a vote of 218-214, there was lots of celebrating. The working class, the middle class, small business owners and taxpayers celebrated, each for different reasons. Waitresses and waiters rejoiced because their tips won't be taxed. Construction workers rejoiced because they won't have their overtime pay taxed. Here in Minnesota, that's a huge deal beause lots of construction workers work tons of overtime during 'construction season.' Their paychecks will increase bigtime as a result of the OBBB.

This USA Today op-ed opens by saying "President Donald Trump's legislative package of tax reductions and Medicaid cuts passed out of Congress on July 3 and will soon be signed into law. Up next for Congressional Republicans: Surviving the midterms." It continues, saying "Many Republicans argue that voters will feel the economic benefits of their bill and reward them by sending them back to Washington. Democrats say the bill is deeply unpopular and they'll use it to clobber the GOP in the November 2026 election. History, in this case, favors the Democrats' argument. The party that does not hold the White House typically wins the House in the midterm elections as voters express frustrations with the new president's policies. This trend applies regardless of party in modern history, with some exceptions."

First, when's the last time major tax cuts weren't popular? I don't recall that. Next, when's the last time cutting government benefits to illegal aliens were unpopular? Third, the last time workfare was uncontroversial was in 1996. Then the Clinton-Gingrih-Kasich policies kicked in. Workfare suddenly wasn't controversial anymore.

Fourth and most importantly, how many times has President Trump defied the laws of political gravity? If I got paid $100 each time a DNC mouthpiece reporter talked about the tight margins in the House or Senate or that the Republicans faced an uphill fight, I'd be wealthy just from the last 3 months. It's time for the MSM to realize that the rules that apply to him don't apply to mere mortals.

And public polling about the Republican bill already indicates voters aren't thrilled about it. A Fox News poll published in mid-June found 38% of respondents favored the legislation and 59% opposed it. Polls from Quinnipiac, The Washington Post, KFF and Pew reflected similar sentiments.

"This will cost Republicans the House," said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Washington, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is responsible for helping Democrats keep and win House seats.

Apparently, this op-ed is bassed on junk polls and a statement from the chair of the DCCC. If that's considered solid, then we need to redefine solid. If the OBBB breezed through the House with healthy bipartisan support, Rep. DelBene would've made the same statement.

The bill's Medicaid cuts are expected to leave 11.8 million Americans without insurance over the next ten years – a deeply "damaging" result that will drive up healthcare costs for families, DelBene said. Democrats have likened this bill to Republicans' 2017 attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, after which Republicans lost 40 seats in the House.

"People want representatives that are going to stand up for them," she argued, "and this bill is an example of Republicans turning away from their constituents."

First, the Medicaid cuts don't kick in until after the midterm elections. Next,I refuse to think that making healthy recipients of Medicaid or SNAP benefits having to work or perform community service are that unpopular. Third, Republicans have a lengthy list of campaign surrogates to campaign with GOP incumbents in swing districts and battleground states. On the flipside, if you're a Democrat who voted against tax cuts for waiters, waitresses and construction workers, electricians and the trades in general, who will you turn to for campaigning with? AOC? Bernie? Jasmine Crockett? Zohran Mamdani? Meanwhile, GOP candidates in swing districts and battleground states get to campaign with John Kennedy, John Thune, Mike Johnson, Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise or Tom Cotton? That's before thinking about VP JD Vance, Scott Bessent, Sarah Huckabee-Sanders, Ron DeSantis or Glenn Youngkin.

Republicans have "written the script" for 2026, said Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Maryland.

"I’m certainly going to be talking about it all of the time," he told USA TODAY. "I mean, nothing could better capture the way that the Republican party just serves Donald Trump and our would-be monarchs and oligarchs."

What's better for GOP candidates than reminding voters that Democrats voted against massive tax cuts for blue collar workers? What's better for the GOP than reminding voters that Democrats voted against securing the border. That means Democrats voted to overburden hospitals, schools, SNAP benefits and Medicaid benefits. Bill Maher sets things straight in this video:

Democrats are walking in quicksand. Big percentagees of Democrats have expressed disagust with the U.S. That plays well in LA, Philadelphia and shrinking parts of Chicago. It doesn't play in Peoria, the Rust Belt and the Heartland.The Rust Belt, the Deep South and the Heartland are where majorities are made. Finally, Americans love living in the land of opportunity, prosperity and fairness. That's the America Democrats know nothing about.