Does Donald Trump have an Iowa abortion problem?

If you think that big, sometimes prohibitive, leads in major national polls mean that Donald Trump is the favorite to be the GOP nominee, you might want to dig a little deeper than the horserace number in those polls. Karl Rove certainly isn't a Trump fan so what he writes in his weekly WSJ op-ed should be taken with a grain of salt before accepting it as truth.

In this week's column, though, Rove appears to be onto something when he wrote "Nor has Mr. Trump helped himself with his narcissistic insistence on full fealty. He wants political figures to fawn over him. If they don’t, he can turn on them, as when he attacked the popular Govs. Kim Reynolds of Iowa and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire."

Trump thinks that he can simply bulldoze people with his overwhelming stage presence. That certainly worked in 2016. It worked against him in 2020, when the Biden campaign picked their spots while criticizing him, then retreating to his home again. Whether that works in 2024 is another matter.

It isn't just with governors that Trump demands 100% loyalty. Let's remember when Trump criticized Kayleigh McEnany for highlighting Trump's mistake:

On Truth Social, Trump said "Kayleigh "Milktoast" McEnany just gave out the wrong poll numbers on FoxNews. I am 34 points up on DeSanctimonious, not 25 up. While 25 is great, it’s not 34. She knew the number was corrected upwards by the group that did the poll. The RINOS & Globalists can have her. FoxNews should only use REAL Stars!!!"
That's the definition of a jerk. Republicans can't criticize Democrats for lacking character, then support a candidate that's got a character deficit himself.

There's a potential other problem in Trump's path to the nomination:

Then there’s his claim Sunday that "both sides" will be happy for him to mediate an abortion compromise. Understanding that the National Abortion Rights Action League won’t ever support limits, pro-lifers instead want a president who will work with the American people to fashion a consensus on reasonable restrictions.
Trump is trying the same I'm-a-master-negotiator tactic with Ukraine. President Zelenskiy rained on that parade this week during the U.N. General Assembly week. But I digress. Back to Iowa:
Mr. Trump doesn’t seem to like retail campaigning. He breezed in and out of the state fair Aug. 12 while other contenders spent hours and hours there. He prefers rallies of frenzied fans. Doors open two hours early and people are told to show up 90 minutes before he speaks. Taking no questions, his speeches are part ramble, part rant. It’s entertaining—or at least once was—but is it effective?

Mr. Trump’s competitors, unburdened by multiple criminal indictments, are making up in their volume of appearances in early states what Mr. Trump gets with his infrequent rallies. Last Saturday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had six events in Iowa while former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley had eight stops there across Friday and Saturday.

I used to enjoy listening to Trump's speeches. Long before I stopped supporting him, I stopped liking to listen to his rambling rants. First, they went on too long. Next, there wasn't a message in them besides what I call Trump's 'I'm so great and the economy is fabulous, isn't it?' section. The hidden Trump voter, aka the forgotten man, was forgotten again, buried beneath a pile of Trump's narcissism. It's worth noting that Trump is taking criticism for his criticism of the Heartbeat Bill, which prohibits abortions after a heartbeat is detected. Check out what Gov. Kim Reynolds said about the Heartbeat Bill:

Trump doesn't often misread a room on the campaign trail. He did this time. How much it hurts him or whether it hurts him is still to be determined. It's worth noting that 2 of the first 3 states (Iowa and South Carolina) in the GOP nomination fight have large evangelical voting populations.If Trump thinks that he can jet into town, hold a quick rally, then jet back out without defending his policies, he might get surprised once voting starts.

I'm skeptical of the national polls showing Trump 50 points ahead nationally. I'm questioning them because of a question I have. In 2016 (and to a lesser extent 2020), we were told about hidden Trump voters. Trump supporters didn't want to admit that they supported Trump to national pollsters. It's one thing for Trump to have a steady 15 point lead. It's another when he's constantly got a lasting 40-50 point lead.

Might it be that there's a hidden anti-Trump voter this time? Might there be a voting block that love Trump's pollicies but don't like Trump? I think there is. Frequently, Trump runs behind other Republicans on the same ballot.

Trump isn't that popular. I don't think it's a stretch to think the anti-Trump voting block might exist.

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