Democrats' 2026 big blue wave? Don't bet on it

Lately, Democrats have tried spreading the gossip that there's a blue wave heading in the U.S.'s' direction in the 2026 midterms. After reading this article, though, I'm inclined to believe that we're heading towards modest gains in the House and Senate. The reason I think that is because AMAC is reporting "Money talks, to coin a phrase, so we will begin with the story of the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) disclosures for each of the two parties. The Republican National Committee (RNC) had $72 million in reserves, according to an FEC report released on June 21, 2025. The Democratic National Committee (DNC), on the other hand, had a mere $15 million in cash reserves according to an FEC report released on the same day."

That isn't the type of cash-on-hand report that a growing, unified party highlights. In fact, the news gets worse for Democrats. AMAC also reports "Six people briefed on the party’s fund-raising, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss its finances frankly, said big donors — who are an essential part of the party’s funding — had been very slow to give to the party this year … Senior D.N.C. officials have discussed the possibility of borrowing money in the coming months to keep the operations fully funded, according to two people with direct knowledge of the private discussions who insisted on anonymity."

That isn't the worst news, though. This would put me into a panic:

Unfortunately for the Democratic Party, this cash shortage is not their only problem. According to a recent NBC report, the percentage of registered Democrats in states and territories that publish the partisan affiliation of voters has also decreased from 44 percent to 37 percent since 2000.

This decline is more dramatic than it may appear at first glance. Expressed as a percentage of 44, this seven-point decline means the Democratic Party has lost 16 percent of its registered voters – millions and millions of people. Most switched their registrations to Independent. Meanwhile, the percentage of registered Republicans has decreased by two points during the same 25-year time period.

Chris Cillizza's report isn't flattering:

Ken Martin came to the DNC from the DFL, the campaign committee for Minnesota Democrats. Since getting to the DNC, he's done a lackluster job. People are noticing that the DNC isn't raising money. What's worse is that, as Cillizza reports,the NY Times ran a cover story highlighting the DNC's difficulties.. Further, more of the DNC's biggest donors have switched sides. Finally:

Evidence that the migration of Democrat voters to the Independent column is an ominous sign can be found in the results of the 2024 presidential election. Edison Research, which conducted exit polls of 22,900 voters, found that Democrat turnout decreased by 11.2 million from 2020 to 2024 while Independent turnout increased by 11 million. From 2020 to 2024, Donald Trump closed the gap among these voters by almost exactly that amount. In 2020, Joe Biden won Independents by 13 percentage points nationally. In 2024, Kamala Harris won them by only three percentage points nationally.

I won't suggest that Democrats are about to go the way of the Whig Party. Then again, I'm not ruling it out, either.