Will Pennsylvania follow Ohio into the reliably ruby-red column?

This year, 2024, President-Elect Trump won Pennsylvania's 19 Electoral Votes for the second time in three years. This article asks whether Pennsylvania will soon follow in Ohio's footsteps in becoming a reliably ruby-red state. At this point, I'm still a little skeptical of Pennsylvania becoming that reliably ruby-red.

There's no disputing the fact that Republicans are becoming more competitive in Pennsylvania. This isn't just about President-Elect Trump. It's also about doing the work that isn't getting noticed. It's about personnel on the ground. This past year, Scott Presler was on-the-ground with his troops getting to every group of Pennsylvanians registering them to vote. It's mattered. Bigtime. According to the article, "Democrats now have their 'narrowest voter registration edge in at least a half-century. What was an advantage of 1.2 million voters in 2008… is now a gap of fewer than 300,000.'"

That's clearly a trend. Despite that trend, though, Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania's electoral votes. Let's examine Ohio vs. Pennsylvania.

With the lone exception of 2020, for every presidential election cycle since 1980, the winner of the presidential contest in Ohio has ascended to the Oval Office, signaling the centrality of the state to our nation’s political and electoral landscape.

Over the last eight years, however, the Buckeye State has gone from a presidential bellwether to a ruby red stronghold. Donald Trump won there three consecutive times, this year increasing his margin of victory to 11 points – a margin not seen since George H.W. Bush’s 55 percent to 44 percent victory in 1988.

In 2016 and 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8 points and 8.5 points respectively. It's been rock-solid red from the start of the general election cycle through Election Day in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 and 2024 while losing it in 2020.

Don't get me wrong. That's very competitive compared with losing Pennsylvania from 1992 through 2012. It helps to have Scott Presler on your side, too:

It's worth noting that the "Blue Firewall" states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan have voted together for years. That pattern might hold for the next 2-3 presidential election cycles. It might not. There's a saying that Mara Liasson started. She said "Patterns are patterns until they aren't anymore." We don't know if these Blue Firewall states will continue voting together like they've done in the past. Still, the competitiveness of those states each cycle changes how both parties approach each election.

When Democrats won Pennsylvania's electoral votes from 1992 through 2012, both sides took the state for granted.Those days are history. Going forward, expect both Republicans and Democrats to fight hard for Pennsylvania's electoral votes. Democratgs will have a big adjustment to make because of this:

I still expect Pennsylvania to be competitive. The keys will be who does a better job relating to energy industry employees, candidate quality and who runs the best campaign. Finally, it helps Republicans to have Scott Presler and Elon Musk on their team.