Examining the Quinnipiac Poll

I hope Joe Biden reads this Quinnipiac poll before tonight's debate. If nothing else, it'll put additional pressure on Joe to perform above expectations. The trouble for Biden starts in Q1, which asks the question "If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)." Trump finishes with 49% while Biden finishes with 45%. That isn't the part that should give Biden heartburn, though.

Inside that question, it says that 53% of women prefer Biden while 40% of women picked Trump. Also inside that question, we find that 59% of men pick men while 37% of men prefer Biden. That's a 22-point gap in Trump's favor with men. Meanwhile, Biden only has a 13-point lead with women. A 9-point lead in Trump's favor on gender is, putting it mildly, significant.

Q2 asks "If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running as an independent candidate, Cornel West running as an independent candidate, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, and Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)." Much like in Q1, Biden holds a slim 44%-34% lead with women. Meanwhile, Trump holds a 51%-30% lead with men.

This isn't an interview about the Q Poll but it also brings bad news to Biden:

That interview with RCP's Tom Bevan is of a set of battleground polls. Like with other battleground polls, Trump leads in almost each battleground state. The poll was conducted by Emerson. The Emerson Poll shows Minnesota tied between Trump and Biden.

If Biden only has a 10-15-point lead with women, he's fighting an uphill fight. To win, he'd need a lead twice that size. I suspect that these polls (Emerson and Quinipiac) are putting additional pressure on Biden for tonight's debate. If he doesn't have a big performance in tonight's debate, there could be a significant Trump bounce out of tonight's debate. That, in turn, would put more pressure on Scranton Joe.

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