One Nation PAC is getting aggressive

Politico is reporting that "One Nation, a top conservative group, is plowing $70 million more into hitting vulnerable Democrats in key Senate races nationwide according to details first shared with POLITICO, an extraordinary sum that’s roughly double the group’s Senate investment last cycle."

According to Politico, One Nation PAC is spending significant money in "Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada" in an attempt to flip those states' Senate seats. Those ad buys will be starting this summer. One Nation PAC is already running ads in Montana.

The 3 most vulnerable Senate seats are West Virginia, Montana and Ohio with an asterisk. West Virginia isn't vulnerable anymore. I'm counting that as a flip from Democrat to Republican. Once Manchin retired, that seat all but officially flipped. The seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan should be considered sleeper opportunities. Meanwhile, Nevada and Arizona should be considered promising pick-up opportunities. This is Steve Kornacki's perspective on the nationwide Senate races:

Check this out:
The total spend for the campaign this cycle is $88 million, more than double the $43 million run of ads the group ran last cycle. The lion’s share of the new money will go into what Republicans currently see as their top three pick-up opportunities: The group will start $28.6 million in ads in Ohio on May 22 and $18.6 million in Pennsylvania starting in mid-June. The group previously announced a $17.9 million tranche of ads in Montana.
It doesn't require expertise to predict that Republicans will retake the U.S. Senate. Expertise is required to predict how big the GOP's majority will be. While I don't have that type of expertise, I'm willing to make 2 predictions. First, I'll predict that Democrats won't flip a Senate seat this year. Next, I'll predict that the GOP will have between 53-56 seats in their Senate majority when 2025 opens.

Most likely, Republicans will flip Ohio, Montana, Arizona and perhaps Nevada. Republicans will flip Joe Manchin's seat in West Virginia. Today's primary will determine who replaces Sen. Manchin. Wisconsin, Nevada and Michigan might be in play depending on whether President Trump has some coattails. Finally, Maryland is considered a longshot.

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