What is Israel's next move against Iran?
Thursday night, Israel launched the first phase of what's seen as their retaliatory fight against Iran. In doing so, they exhibited their superiority over Iran's defense systems. CBS is reporting that "Two U.S. officials told CBS News on Thursday night that an Israeli missile had struck Iran. The strike came less than a week after Iran's unprecedented retaliatory drone and missile attack on Israel, to which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had vowed to respond."
Iran downplays missile strike
Iran's state-run IRNA news agency said air defense batteries fired across several provinces, but it didn't elaborate on why the batteries had fired. Iranians did report hearing the sound of explosions in several locations, but there was no urgent meeting called of Iran's ruling High National Council, state television said, and it appeared the Iranian government was trying to downplay the impact of the Israeli attack.
State media and Iranian sources speaking with various news outlets mentioned only small drones flying around a couple sites in the country, without any reference to a missile strike. There were no immediate reports of damage.
Iran understands what Israel's airstrike represents. Israel likely used their F-35s to fly deep into Iran's airspace without detection. In fact, they didn't just indisciminately 'visit' Iran. They visited Isfahan Province, where Iran's Natanz Nuclear Facility, Iran's crown jewel, is located. Losing that facility would be like terrorists taking out the Pentagon in terms of loss of prestige. It'd be a big deal.This puts Israal in the dominant position in the Israel-Iran bilateral relationship. Iran launched 300+ missiles, rockets and drones at Israel. 99% of Iran's ordnance was eliminated without it hitting its target. Israel's air defense systemss, with support from their allies, shot down Iran's missiles. By comparison, Israel's military assets hit their targets while getting in and out unscathed. This is the best analysis I've seen on the attack:
I suspect that things will quiet down for the next 1-2 weeks while the Jewish people celebrate Passover and the Feast of First Fruits. After that, it's possible for anything to happen. Then there's this:The Reuters news agency cited an unnamed Iranian official as saying there were no plans in Tehran to respond to the Israeli retaliation. "I think it's a measured response," Efraim Halevi, an Israeli intelligence expert and former director of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, told CBS News on Friday. "It is in no way proportionate to the attack we had to deal with a couple of days ago, but it is enough to send the message to the leadership in Iran."TRANSLATION: We're backing off. We don't want to get our butts kicked.
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