Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice, lopsided race edition

At one point, Jim Justice and Joe Manchin were West Virginia Democrats. Justice succeeded Manchin as governor of West Virginia when Manchin left office to serve in the U.S. Senate. A funny thing happened on the way to Manchin's reelection. He betrayed the people of West Virginia.

Manchin won the special election to replace Robert C. Byrd after Byrd's death. Sen. Manchin's tradition was to act like a moderate West Virginian while in West Virginia. The minute he got to Washington, DC, though, Manchin was 'Mr. Let's-Make-a-Deal', aka 'Mr. Swing Vote.' Principled, he isn't.

This week, a poll came out showing that West Virginians don't appreciate politicians that'll sell them out. The poll showed Gov. Justice with a gaping 22-point lead over the sellout, aka Joe Manchin, saying "West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) is leading incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) by 22 points in a hypothetical U.S. Senate matchup in 2024, according to a poll released Tuesday." The article continues with this:

Justice leads Manchin 54 percent to 32 percent, with 13 percent of respondents saying they are undecided, according to an East Carolina University Center for Survey Research poll of registered voters in West Virginia.

The same survey found that Justice has a job-approval rating of 57 percent and a 29-percent disapproval rating. Manchin’s job-approval rating sits at 33 percent, with a 59-percent disapproval rating.

Not even the Mountain Valley Pipeline tentative approval appears to be helping Manchin:

It takes a lifetime to build trust. It only takes a moment to destroy that trust. It takes a lifetime to rebuild that trust. Joe Manchin didn't maintain the people's trust. Since he's 75+ years-of-age, he doesn't have enough time to rebuild that trust.

This poll, plus Manchin's betrayal of West Virginia's dominant chief industry, leads me to think that Manchin will either lose badly to Justice or he'll run for president as the No Labels nominee. Either way, Republicans pick up a U.S. Senate seat. Whether Trump can run a terrible enough campaign to still keep the Senate in Sen. Schumer's hands is still debatable.

At this point, both Manchin and Trump have caused lots of their base to think whether voting for them is justified. I'm not buying Jason Chaffetz' statement that Trump's base is rock solid. I agree that there's a portion of Trump's base, which I call 'Always Trumpers', that are immovable. The rest of his voters are still undecided or leaning. The bad news for Sen. Manchin is that his base never was that loyal. That's why he'll lose handily if he runs for reelection.

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