J.B. Pritzker's outmigration headache

According to J.B. Pritzker, Illinois's Democrat governor, Illinois is doing just fine. IRS data, though, tells a quite different story. According to this WSJ editorial, "The IRS each spring publishes data on the movement of adjusted gross income (AGI) and taxpayers across state lines from year to year. Some Democratic Governors such as Mr. Pritzker claimed that the 2020 Census undercounted their state populations, but the IRS data shows blue states are losing taxpayers and income at an increasing clip."

There's no doubt that things are getting worse for Pritzker but it isn't just Illinois that's having problems. The biggest blue states are experiencing similar trends. According to the IRS, "The IRS data shows a net 105,000 people left Illinois in 2021, taking with them some $10.9 billion in AGI. That’s up from $8.5 billion in 2020 and $6 billion in 2019. New York’s income loss increased to $24.5 billion in 2021 from $19.5 billion in 2020 and $9 billion in 2019. California lost $29.1 billion in 2021, more than triple what it did in 2019."

This isn't happening in low-tax states:

By contrast, the lowest tax states added some $100 billion of income during the pandemic. Zero-income-tax Florida gained $39.2 billion—up from $23.7 billion in 2020 and $17.7 billion in 2019. About $9.8 billion of the total arrived from New York, $3.9 billion from Illinois, $3.7 billion from New Jersey and $3.5 billion from California.

Texas was another winner, attracting a net $10.9 billion in 2021, which follows a gain of $6.3 billion in 2020 and $4 billion in 2019. Californians represented more than half of Texas’s income gain in 2021. The Golden State also sent $4.4 billion to Nevada, $2.7 billion to Arizona and $2 billion to Washington. Nevada and Washington don’t tax wages, and Arizona is phasing out its income tax.

It's the fundamentals, stupid!

Illinois lost income to all of its neighboring states, but the biggest beneficiaries of its taxpayer flight were Florida, Texas, Indiana and Wisconsin. Mr. Pritzker can’t blame lousy weather since it’s not exactly balmy in Kenosha. Billionaire Ken Griffin cited Chicago’s out-of-control crime last year as the reason he moved his hedge fund to Miami.

This interview verifies what the IRS statistics show:

If it's broke, fix it!

A major problem for high-tax states is that their escapees often pay more in taxes than their newcomers. The IRS data shows that the taxpayers leaving Illinois and New York typically made about $30,000 to $40,000 more than those arriving. Of Illinois’s total out-migration, 28% of the leavers made between $100,000 to $200,000 and 23% made $200,000 or more.

By contrast, the average return of a Florida newcomer in 2021 was about $150,000—more than double that of taxpayers who left. High earners spend more, which yields higher sales tax revenue. This helped Florida post a record $22 billion budget surplus last year. California is forecasting a $29.5 billion deficit.

People are getting tired of paying high taxes, especially when the services that their taxes are supposed to pay for are too expensive or low in quality. North Dakota and Florida are well-run states. Florida is the fastest-growing state in the U.S. North Dakota is attracting investors at a fast, impressive clip. Both states are well-run. If I played a word association game well-run isn't the first word I'd pick in association with Illinois, California, Minnesota or New York.