Trafalgar Group poll, Minnesota edition

First, it's been 16 years since a Republican has won a statewide race in Minnesota. Next, Republicans have had a difficult time winning here because lots of Republicans have left Minnesota for pro-business tax states. While I'm still taking an I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it attitude, I'm entertaining that there's a distinct possibility that Republicans will fire Tim Walz on Nov. 8.

I'm entertaining that possibility because Dr. Scott Jensen just grabbed his first lead of the campaign. Granted, it isn't a big lead but it's a GOP lead nonetheless. In Mitch's post on the subject, Mitch quotes Jack Tomczak as saying "If you care about Minnesota not collapsing further, and you’re not volunteering time or money for a candidate, statewide or legislative, what the hell are you waiting for?"

I agree with Jack. If Trafalgar's methodology is right, then Minnesota is on the verge of toppling 2 major DFL kingpins. According to Trafalgar, Dr. Jensen leads Walz 46.3%-45.8% while Jim Schultz, the GOP-endorsed candidate for Attorney General, is leading Keith Ellison, the DFL incumbent AG by a 50.2%-45.3% margin. Defeating either DFL incumbent would be greeted with cheers. Defeating both will require divine intervention.

This poll was in the field before the second Jensen-Walz debate:

In the first 15 minutes of the debate, Tim Walz was passive. The only time he came alive was when both candidates were asked about school safety. That's when Walz went into his guns-are-evil diatribe. Based on this information, I suspect that Jensen a) is gaining momentum and b) will continue gaining momentum.

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