Trafalgar Group poll, Minnesota edition

First, it's been 16 years since a Republican has won a statewide race in Minnesota. Next, Republicans have had a difficult time winning here because lots of Republicans have left Minnesota for pro-business tax states. While I'm still taking an I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it attitude, I'm entertaining that there's a distinct possibility that Republicans will fire Tim Walz on Nov. 8.

I'm entertaining that possibility because Dr. Scott Jensen just grabbed his first lead of the campaign. Granted, it isn't a big lead but it's a GOP lead nonetheless. In Mitch's post on the subject, Mitch quotes Jack Tomczak as saying "If you care about Minnesota not collapsing further, and you’re not volunteering time or money for a candidate, statewide or legislative, what the hell are you waiting for?"

I agree with Jack. If Trafalgar's methodology is right, then Minnesota is on the verge of toppling 2 major DFL kingpins. According to Trafalgar, Dr. Jensen leads Walz 46.3%-45.8% while Jim Schultz, the GOP-endorsed candidate for Attorney General, is leading Keith Ellison, the DFL incumbent AG by a 50.2%-45.3% margin. Defeating either DFL incumbent would be greeted with cheers. Defeating both will require divine intervention.

This poll was in the field before the second Jensen-Walz debate:

In the first 15 minutes of the debate, Tim Walz was passive. The only time he came alive was when both candidates were asked about school safety. That's when Walz went into his guns-are-evil diatribe. Based on this information, I suspect that Jensen a) is gaining momentum and b) will continue gaining momentum.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Tim Walz's Confederate Flag Fiasco

Image
After Minnesota's Democrats shoved the most controversial progressive legislation down Minnesotans' throats, gossip started popping up about Gov. Walz being interested in running for president . That's died off but Gov. Walz is still making headlines, this time for all the wrong reasons. First, Gov. Walz isn't the brightest bulb in the chandelier. Still, Gov. Walz is fighting against Minnesota's history. This Alpha News article quotes David Hann, the chairman of Minnesota's Republican Party, as saying " The flag the DFL has eliminated was a version of the historic flag our regiments fought under during the Civil War. Minnesota was the first state to offer troops to the Union cause in 1861 , beginning a long tradition of leading the nation in confronting injustice. The DFL quest to erase our history is repugnant and should be rejected." Gov. Walz, though, sees things differently. He's quoted as saying "Minnesota is a diverse state, it continue
Read more

What is Kamala Harris afraid of?

Image
Apparently, Kamala Harris suddenly loves debating. Let me rephrase that. Harris loves debating as long as the moderators are partisan hacks. She wants nothing to do with a debate moderated by Fox's Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. She's afraid of Bret and Martha because a) they'll either fact-check both her and Trump or they won't fact-check either of them and b) Bret and Martha aren't afraid of asking follow-up questions. To a candidate whose answers are scripted and who isn't quick on her feet, the last thing you want is a follow-up question. Kamala fears follow-up questions like vampires hate wooden stakes, sunlight and holy water. Why has Kamala Harris avoided Fox News like the plague? The moderators/propagandists fact-checked Donald Trump aggressively but didn't fact-check Harris . Why didn't David Muir and Linsey Davis fact-check both candidates equally? Is it because Harris doesn't like fair fights? Perhaps she's just afraid of getting exp
Read more

Why is Joe Biden letting Hamas off the hook?

Image
It isn't disputable whether Joe Biden's administration is letting Hamas off the hook. That issue was settled months ago, when a spineless Joe Biden caved to activists interested in saving Hamas and thwarting the Israelis' attempt to defend themselves. Gerard Baker's op-ed highlights what's at stake for the U.S. if the terrorists are permitted to survive. In his op-ed, Baker wrote "If, under the pressure of internal Democratic politics and global public opinion, the Biden administration forces a 'cease-fire' that leaves our closest ally in the region short of victory over an enemy that seeks to destroy it, sooner or later we shall all pay the price." It's time to revisit George W. Bush's speech to a joint session of Congress on Sept. 20, 2001. It's required that we remind ourselves of one of its most important paragraphs. In talking about who committed the atrocities of 9/11, President Bush identified al-Qa'ida as "a collectio
Read more