Ukraine, NATO & the Powell Doctrine

In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait because it insisted that Kuwait had drilled oil wells that tapped into Iraqi oil. Within hours of that invasion, President George H.W. Bush emphatically stated "This will not stand." Later, in a meeting with Lady Thatcher, Thatcher instructed Bush "George, don't go wobbly." He didn't. Iraq's invasion didn't stand.

Bush 41 got it right in Iraq in the sense that he had a well-defined mission and he had enough troops to defeat Saddam Hussein thanks to what's known as the Powell Doctrine. The Powell Doctrine is named after then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Collin Powell.

The Modern War Institute lays out the Powell Doctrine here:

  1. Is a vital national security interest threatened?
  2. Do we have a clear attainable objective?
  3. Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed?
  4. Have all other nonviolent policy means been fully exhausted?
  5. Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement?
  6. Have the consequences of our action been fully considered?
  7. Is the action supported by the American people?
  8. Do we have genuine broad international support?
Next, let's apply these questions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The answer to Q1 is yes. Ukraine is part of the breadbasket of the world. The sooner Ukraine or NATO throws Russia out of Ukraine, the better off everyone will be from an agricultural standpoint and from an inflation standpoint.

The answer to Q2 is emphatically a yes. Defeating Russia is definitely possibility after the Kremlin announced that they're redeploying their troops from Kyiv to the Donbas region:
The Russian military on Friday signaled that it might be lowering its war ambitions and would be focusing on defeating Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region, though military analysts said it remained to be seen whether the move constituted a meaningful shift or was a maneuver to distract attention ahead of another offensive.

 This is proof that Russia is underperforming. The Russians can spin this whichever way they want but consolidating their gains won in 2014 is admitting defeat. Period.

The Russians are retreating. Now's the time to resupply Ukraine. Retreating from dug-in positions takes time. Now's the time to hit the tanks with as many Javelins as possible.

The best way to defend NATO countries is by defeating Russia in Ukraine. Humiliating Putin's Russia on the international stage is the ultimate victory. In this video, the Russians state that their "main goal" was "the liberation of Donbas":

Putin knows that he's in the process of getting humiliated. It's now clear that his military isn't as powerful as he's projected. To negotiate at this point is foolish. Humiliating Putin should be Ukraine's goal:

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