Trafalgar poll: Glenn Youngkin leads Terry McAuliffe 48.4-47.5%

The latest Trafalgar Group polling in Virginia shows Republican Glenn Youngkin leading Democrat Terry McAuliffe by a margin of 48.4% to 47.5%. This is the first time that a major poll has had Youngkin leading McAuliffe since the race started.

Youngkin has razor thin lead in #VAGov race:

48.4% @GlennYoungkin,
47.5% @TerryMcAuliffe,
1.3% Third Party/Write-In
2.8% Undecided,

According to @trafalgar_group #poll Conducted 10/11-10-13.
See Report: https://t.co/27f8lnj8XJ pic.twitter.com/lTjx7rd6gw

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 15, 2021

The Trafalgar poll has a sample size of 1,095 likely Virginia voters. It was conducted on Oct. 11-13, making it the latest poll in the RCP average of polls. The poll's MOE is +- 2.96%.

The Youngkin-McAuliffe horserace question was the first question in the poll. The next question in the poll is Joe Biden's approval rating. Biden is underwater, with 39.9% approving and a whopping 58.4% disapproving. What's frightening for Biden is that 51.7% of likely voters strongly disapprove of Biden's handling of the job.

That isn't the only bad polling news for McAuliffe. From the latest Fox Poll:

A new Fox News poll found that a strong majority of Virginia parents said they should tell schools what to teach their children, amid high-profile controversies over transgender policies and critical race theory in the state's schools. 

The poll comes just two weeks after Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe – who served as Virginia's governor from 2014 to 2018 – said he opposes the notion of parents telling schools what they should teach. 

When asked by Fox pollsters, "Do you believe parents should – or should not – be telling schools what to teach?" 57% of Virginia parents and 50% of likely voters told Fox News that parents should tell schools what to teach. Only 34% of parents, and 40% of likely voters, said parents "should not" tell schools what to teach.

Glenn Youngkin's meteoric rise in the polls started with this debate moment:

There's some additional trouble brewing for McAuliffe. Voter intensity with suburban women and African-Americans isn't where he needs it to be to drive turnout. The race remains too close to call but the warning signs to McAuliffe and Democrats are abundantly visible.