Will Joe Biden run in 2024? Can he win?

It's probably wrong to ask whether Joe Biden will run for re-election but it's something I've thought about a few times lately. I'm not convinced he will but he wouldn't do well if the election was held this November. At least, that's what John Nolte wrote in this article.

According to Nolte's article, "Rasmussen Reports, one of the country’s most accurate pollsters, shows that should Trump choose to run again in 2024, he would obliterate Joe Biden by a margin of 51 to 41 percent."

Nolte then writes "I have never in my life seen a president, most especially one who lost re-election, hold on to his base of support the way Trump has. This year my wife and I have enjoyed two separate month-long camping trips, which have taken us through more than a dozen states, and Trump flags and banners and 'F*** Joe Biden' flags are still everywhere."

Donald Trump is the most animating president of my lifetime. That doesn't mean I'll always defend the things he says. It just means that President Trump's voters are exceptionally loyal to him because he's gotten the things done that are important to them. He fixed the economy. He cut their taxes and raised their buying power. He made us energy independent, which Biden immediately ruined.

Joe Biden has opened the secure borders that Trump built, then accused Trump of breaking the broken Obama-Biden immigration system. If Biden visited Texas border communities, he'd find that his policies are the ones that people consider broken. Trump's immigration policies brought security to these border communities.

Talk about understatement:

It's been a very rough last two months for President Joe Biden, plagued by a disastrous end to the war in Afghanistan and the Delta variant of the coronavirus rampaging through the unvaccinated.

Those twin developments have badly eroded Americans' view of the President, according to new Gallup numbers released this week. Biden's job approval now sits at just 43% while a majority -- 53% -- disapprove of how he has handled his duties.

It's been a rapid descent for Biden. As late as June, 56% approved of how he was doing while only 40% disapproved. The decline began in July (50% approve/46% disapprove) and in August roughly the same number approved (49%) as disapproved (48%).

The decline in Biden's numbers is almost entirely attributable to independents souring on him. In June, 55% of those not affiliated with either party approved of how Biden was handling the presidency. Today that number sits at just 37%. As Gallup's Megan Brenen notes: "Two-thirds of Biden's slide among independents since he took office has occurred in the past three months."

Let's put a finer point on Biden's slide. Once Biden's policies started taking effect, especially on the border and COVID, his numbers started dropping. When his policies fired up inflation, independents started worrying. When people noticed his misreading on mandates (masks and vaccines), they left him.

When the border crisis erupted and Afghanistan exploded into the headlines, independents left Biden like Hebrews left Egypt the night of Passover. Independents are mostly competency-driven. They aren't ideological like partisans are.

I'm not convinced that Hillary won't be the Democrats' nominee in 2024. Biden is frail already. How much he has left in the tank is questionable. Kamala might be the nominee if Biden leaves early but that's the only way she gets the nomination. Who do Democrats have after that? The bad news for Republicans and the nation is that Biden can do lots of damage before 2024.