Save America, kill the bill Updated

For over a week, Larry Kudlow has repeatedly told guests on his show and other audiences to "Save America. Kill the bill." The bill being referenced, of course, is the Democrats' reconciliation bill. Very recent events have changed the Democrats' timing, throwing a wrench in things in a big way.

NBCNews is reporting "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Democrats on Monday that passage of the $550 billion infrastructure bill must not wait for President Joe Biden's multitrillion-dollar safety net bill, saying the larger package is not yet ready for a vote." NBC is reporting that Pelosi told her caucus "I told all of you that we wouldn't go on to the [infrastructure bill until] we had the reconciliation bill passed by the Senate. We were right on schedule to do all of that, until 10 days ago, a week ago, when I heard the news that this number had to come down. It all changed, so our approach had to change. We had to accommodate the changes that were being necessitated. And we cannot be ready to say until the Senate passed the bill we can't do BIF." (BIF "shorthand for Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework.")

Things started unravelling on Democrats when Mitch McConnell's Republicans voted against starting debate on raising the debt ceiling. Shortly after that vote, Sen. McConnell said "We are willing to work together to keep government open. We are not willing to help Democrats raise the debt ceiling while they write a reckless taxing and spending spree of historic proportions behind closed doors. Democrats control the entire government — the Senate, the House, and the White House. They intend to sideline Republicans and go it alone to slam American families with historic tax hikes and borrowing. So they will need to raise the debt limit on a partisan basis as well. And they’ve known that for months now."

Sen. McConnell is right. This is a crisis of the Democrats' making. Democrats had the opportunity to work in a bipartisan way or to employ a go-it-alone strategy. Sen. Schumer picked the go-it-alone strategy, most likely because he's worried about getting primaried by AOC. But I digress.

Sen. Schumer's go-it-alone strategy has put Pelosi in a difficult position. The debt limit instructions must be included in their not-yet-completed reconciliation bill. If the debt limit instructions aren't included in that bill, Democrats will need 60 votes to raise the debt limit.

Republicans should follow Newt Gingrich's advice in this interview:

If Democrats want Republican votes to raise the debt ceiling, the GOP demand should be for Democrats to stop the tax increases, the Green New Deal and the reconciliation bill dead in its tracks. Of course, Democrats can't agree to that. It's political suicide if they did. Still, Republicans should force the issue. If the reconciliation bill fails, Democrats will have to work with Republicans. That's what happens when you unwisely pursue a radical agenda, especially after the voters were told they were voting for a moderate.

UPDATE: Byron York is thinking like me:

So Pelosi will cave on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and then she and her party will cave on government funding. That leaves the debt ceiling negotiations, which will take longer but are also likely to result in a Democratic compromise.

Why all the caving? For the same reason as always. Democrats don't have the votes to steamroll the opposition. Pelosi has a bare, single-digit majority in the House, and Democrats do not control a majority of seats in the 50-50 Senate, relying on Vice President Kamala Harris to break ties. You don't pass New Deal-sized legislation without a solid majority in the House and Senate. In the last eight months, Democratic ambitions have far outstripped their power on Capitol Hill. Now, reality is setting in.

The key to all this was Republicans voting against starting debate on raising the debt ceiling. Once that happened, Democrats were caught in no-man's-land. Once the leverage is gone, there's little reason for semi-moderate Democrats to vote for the reconciliation bill, at least as currently configured.